Apple Will Sell More Than 250 Million iPhone 5 :Asymco

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Apple shipped 37 million iPhones in Q4 of the last year and also shipped 35.1 million in Q1 of this year. However, shipments of iPhone dwindled in Q2 of this year; Apple could manage to ship just 26 million iPhones for the quarter. The company has sold five different iPhone models such as iPhone, iPhone 3G, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S; and iPhone 5 is yet to come. If you will see the graph (below), definitely, you will find out a pattern in the shipments of Apple’s different versions of iPhone.

Apple’s Phil Schiller stated this week in the company’s trail against Samsung, “Each new generation sold approximately equal to all previous generations combined.”

After subtle investigations, you will find that the sum of successor models has always been greater than cumulative sum of its predecessor models. iPhone 3G outsold original iPhone by nearly four times. Likewise, iPhone 3GS also beat the cumulative sum of iPhone 3G + original iPhone’s shipments. Further, shipments of iPhone outsold the cumulative sum of shipments of iPhone 3GS, iPhone 3G and original iPhone. However, iPhone 4 is expected to be in production in the future and definitely, the margin will grow up.

The shipments of iPhone 4S is just half way through beating the cumulative sum of iPhone 4, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 3G and original. If we suppose the sales of iPhone 4S is almost the same as what it was in the last quarter, then total shipments of iPhone 4S will reach two-third (i.e. 10o million) of cumulative sum of its successor iPhones (4, 3GS, 3G and original) at the end of September. However, iPhone 4S is expected to remain in production at least for one more year, means it’s likely to reach the target of 162 million.

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But, the question is all about the shipments of iPhone 5. The cumulative sum of its predecessor will likely to be more than 263 million units.

But, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S is still in the production and the target continues to increase. According to Asymco’s another analysis, about 165 million iOS units (iPhone, iPad and other) sold in the following two quarters, among all, about 102 million units were iPhones. The firm has forcasted a 60% growth rate for iPhone shipments. On that basis, it has estimated 200 million iPhones in next twelve months. If we consider 85% of those are iPhone 5, that results 170 million iPhone 5 through the mid of 2013. However, iPhone 5 will remain in the production at least as long as iPhone 3GS in the future and in this way it will easily surpass 200 million figure.

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