Amidst global challenges and a slowdown in certain economies, the world’s communication service providers are boldly investing in the revolutionary 5G technology. Their motivation stems from the promise of unparalleled connectivity and the untapped potential it holds. As this next-generation technology sweeps across the globe, new major players are stepping onto the stage, and none are shining brighter than India. With a rapid surge in network deployments, India has solidified its position as the fastest-growing 5G market on the planet. The Ericsson Mobility Report for June 2023 reveals that the number of 5G subscriptions in India soared to an impressive 10 million by the end of 2022.
It’s worth noting that this figure includes subscriptions from India, Nepal, and Bhutan, although the latter two countries have negligible numbers compared to India.
However, while the momentum of 5G is soaring, it’s worth noting that the overall mobile and smartphone markets in India, Nepal, and Bhutan are nearing saturation. The projected growth for both mobile and smartphone subscriptions in these countries over the next five years is expected to be in the single digits, not even surpassing 5%. With a meagre compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2%, the total number of mobile subscriptions is estimated to rise from 1.1 billion in 2022 to an impressive 1.2 billion by 2028. Conversely, smartphone subscriptions are set to surge from 840 million in 2022 to a staggering 1.14 billion by 2028, with a slightly higher CAGR of 5%.
Rapid Surge in 5G Subscriptions and the Decline of 4G Dominance
India’s ambitious “Digital India” vision hinges on the transformative power of 5G. Since its launch in October 2022, the country’s 5G market has witnessed an awe-inspiring proliferation of networks under this visionary initiative.
The two largest telecom service providers, Reliance Jio and Airtel Bharti, have established 5G network coverage in major Indian cities, including tier-1 and tier-2 cities. The rapid expansion of 5G networks, along with attractive pricing, increasing availability of 5G smartphones, and a mind-blogging superfast speed, have resulted in approximately 10 million 5G subscribers in India by the end of 2022.
By the end of 2028, the number of 5G subscribers in India is expected to reach a staggering 700 million, accounting for 57% of all mobile subscriptions and 61.4% of all smartphone subscriptions in the country.
Enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) and fixed wireless access (FWA) are already emerging as initial use cases for 5G.
While the growth of 5G subscriptions in the India, Nepal, and Bhutan region is impressive, it’s intriguing to note that the reigning champion in the mobile connectivity arena is 4G. A majority of Indians are still hooked up to 4G devices and Internet connections for their digital needs. However, the winds of change are slowly but surely starting to blow.
Over the next five years, a captivating transformation is anticipated. The number of LTE subscriptions (4G) in India, Nepal and Bhutan will decline 8% CAGR, from its peak of 820 million in 2022 to a still-respectable 500 million by 2028.
The sheer dominance of 4G in the region is awe-inspiring. Currently, it accounts for a staggering 73.9% of all mobile subscriptions and a whopping 97.6% of all smartphone subscriptions in the region. However, as we fast forward to 2028, the 4G kingdom will witness a substantial decline, accounting for only 40.7% of all mobile subscriptions and 43.9% of all smartphone subscriptions.
Worldwide 5G Subscriptions: Bigger Picture
India’s 5G success story is just one piece of the larger puzzle. The global stage is abuzz with the rapid adoption of 5G technology, as approximately 240 service providers worldwide have taken the plunge and introduced commercial 5G services to their customers. Notably, around 35 of these providers have gone a step further and deployed or launched 5G standalone (SA) networks, showcasing their commitment to embracing the full potential of this groundbreaking technology.
Among the array of enticing 5G services offered to consumers, the most prevalent offerings include enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), enabling lightning-fast internet on mobile devices, as well as Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) options, ensuring seamless connectivity for homes and businesses. Moreover, the advent of 5G has opened up exciting new avenues for immersive experiences, with gaming enthusiasts and aficionados of augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR) relishing in the captivating possibilities provided by this cutting-edge technology.
Service providers in the leading 5G markets have witnessed a remarkable surge in revenue growth over the past two years. In the first quarter of 2023 alone, the total number of 5G mobile subscriptions soared to a staggering 1.1 billion, with an impressive addition of 125 million subscriptions during that period. This unprecedented growth shows no signs of slowing down, as Ericsson predicts that the number of global 5G subscriptions will reach a remarkable 1.5 billion by the end of 2023, with 57.9% YoY growth.
During the period from 2022 to 2028, the world will witness an impressive 30% CAGR growth in the number of 5G mobile subscriptions, soaring from 950 million to an astounding 4.6 billion. What’s even more intriguing is that by the end of 2028, 5G is expected to emerge as the dominant mobile access technology, surpassing 50% of global mobile subscriptions. With an expected surge from 11.5% in 2022 to an impressive 50.8% in 2028, 5G will overshadow 4G and solidify its position as the prevailing choice for mobile connectivity worldwide. The future is undeniably bright for 5G’s reign.
The popularity of 4G technology remains steadfast as the number of subscriptions continues to rise. In the first quarter of 2023 alone, an impressive 59 million new 4G subscriptions were added, bringing the total to a substantial 5.2 billion.
However, this growth is projected to take a downturn as subscribers gradually transition to the more advanced 5G technology. By the end of 2028, it is estimated that the global 4G subscriptions will decline to approximately 3.8 billion as users increasingly embrace the benefits and capabilities of 5G. The percentage of mobile subscriptions worldwide linked to 4G networks will also decrease from 62.5% in 2022 to 41.8% in 2028.
During the same quarter, there were noticeable declines in other older mobile technologies. The number of 3G subscriptions worldwide will decline by 85 million, indicating a steady shift away from this outdated technology. Similarly, GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions will drop by 59 million as users seek more advanced connectivity options. Additionally, subscriptions for other technologies will also drop by about 4 million, further highlighting the ongoing evolution and migration within the mobile industry.
So, while 5G may be the talk of the town, the reigning champ 4G won’t go down without a fight. But as the digital landscape evolves, these shifts in subscriptions paint a thrilling picture of a dynamic and ever-changing mobile ecosystem. Buckle up, because the mobile revolution is just getting started! Are you ready to embark on this thrilling journey of 5G-powered possibilities?
