As the number of coronavirus cases in India is on constant rise, the country might see the worst of coronavirus pandemic early next year if a vaccine remains elusive.
A recent study by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), on testing and case data of 84 countries, comprising 60% of the world population, suspect that the number of coronavirus cases in India will rise to 2.87 lakh per day by February 2021.
The MIT researchers have also suggested that the entire number of Covid cases globally would be between 20 crore and 60 crore from “spring 2021” (March-May) due to the unavailability of the vaccine.
According to the analysis, India is going to be the worst affected nation because of coronavirus, followed closely by the USA (95,000 cases daily ), South Africa (21,000 cases daily ), and Iran (17,000 daily cases) at the end of February 2021.
The research takes into consideration three cases:
- present testing prices and their answer,
- if testing rises by 0.1% every day from July 1, 2020
- if testing stays at present rates but contact speed to perceived danger will be put to 2 (i.e. if an infected person can violate eight individuals ).
The model highlights the importance of early and aggressive testing in containing the spread of Covid-19. The number grows significantly, indicating that delay in analyzing or not testing might be deadly to some more significant percentage of the populace.
The first scenario indicates that the total number of coronavirus cases is estimated to reach 1.55 billion globally. However, if the authorities in various countries pull up the socks and increase the testing count by 0.1 percent every day, then instances would climb down 1.37 billion according to the next situation.
“Both these scenarios project a very large burden of new cases in the fall (September-November) 2020, with hundreds of millions of cases concentrated in a few countries estimated to have insufficient responses given perceived risks (primarily India, but also Bangladesh, Pakistan, and USA). In contrast, changes in response policies would make a major difference,” the study says.
Again, when testing speed stays at the present level, however, the contact speed is set to 8, then the projection indicates a drastic decrease in the number of deaths and cases. In accordance with the next situation, the total number of cases globally could then be around 60 crore.
The study paints a very difficult and disappointing scenario in India. The research proves that countries reacting badly to the perceived threat are far more likely to face acute difficulties. Additionally, it states that future results are somewhat less dependent on analyzing and much more determined by the readiness of communities and authorities to decrease transmission.
The MIT research further shows that Covid-19 disease and passing data is considerably under-reported global.
“We estimate complete illnesses at 8.85 crore, also 6 lakh deaths from June 18 2020 – 11.8 and also 1.48 times bigger than reported amounts ,” it stated.
Based on Johns Hopkins University, on June 18th, the official number of coronavirus cases globally was 8.24 million, and the deaths were 454,610.
According to general tally, India has is constantly climbing up in the tally and has reached to third position, trailing only behind the US and Brazil. On Monday, India reported a record number of Covid cases of over 22,000 which took India from 6 lakh cases to 7 lakh cases within just 6 days.
Undoubtedly, the scenario in India doesn’t look very promising as the number of testing per lakh still remains the lowest among the top 10 countries in the list.
