Exactly a month before, we had forecasted that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is likely to sell 80.59 million iPhones in its third and fourth fiscal quarter of 2014. Roughly a month later, the news of mass production of iPhone 6 has started to surface. The internet is abuzz with the rumors that the first batch of iPhone 6, reportedly going for sales on September 25, is likely to sell 68 million units. The figure is based upon the recent claim made by a Taiwanese production firm that stated that Apple has ordered to produce 68 million units of iPhone 6 in the first batch. Though no official statement is expected from Cupertino, the forecasts and predictions from all sources are more or less the same, hovering in the range of 60-80 million.
The similar sales figure from all the reputed sources are backed by various scenarios. The majority of Apple iPhone users are looking forward to trade-in or replace their existing devices for iPhone 6. About 70% of existing iPhone users may upgrade to upcoming iPhone 6 under the trade-in program, claims a recent study. The iPhone has the highest retention rate reaching to almost 76%, while 35% users are willing to ditch Android in favor of iPhone 6. The iPhone sales in 2014 are expected to be driven by replacement sales. Considering these trends, it is safe to say that the initial sales of iPhone 6 are going to be high.
The smartphone market in developed countries is reaching a saturation point and it will be a bit tough for Apple to find the first-time buyers. Interestingly, users in the developed markets are even willing to pay $100 extra for a 5.5 inch screen iPhone 6. Though, if launched in screen size of 5.5 inches, Apple might face some stiff competition from LG G3 which is touted to be the best amongst the Android smartphones.
Besides, an interesting scenario can unfold in the Indian market too for Apple. Being a price-sensitive country, Indians might favor iPhone 6 if launched on-contract, like in the US, UK and neighboring China. As the down-payment of smartphone will be less, people are likely to welcome the change. The strategy could be well attributed to the case-study in China, which became one of the largest markets for iPhones, post on-contract offer of iPhone 5C and 5S. Apple is expected to sell nearly 20 million units of iPhone through China Mobile this year.
Another Leaked Image of iPhone 6
Apple enthusiasts seem to take no rest till the iPhone 6 hits the market. A new image of iPhone 6, surfaced recently, features an LCD bracket on 4.7-inch frame with gorilla-glass and four slots for cameras in the front, similar to Amazon Fire Phone. By now, it is safe to assume that the iPhone-maker will be launching two iPhone 6  – 4.7 inches iPhone 6 and 5.5 inch iPhone Air – which are likely to be sleek and slim with rounded edges. The new iPhone6 will apparently be available in the same colors as iPhone 5S – space gray, gold and silver. The previous leaked images of iPhone 6 featured a 12-megapixel camera and an all metal panel.
The impending launch of iPhone 6 is keeping all the industry insiders on their toes with any information that can be deduced from the company. It will be futile to expect any official statement from Cupertino but the previous sales parameters have instilled enough confidence in analysts to forecast the sales of the first batch of iPhone 6. The driving factor for the iPhone 6 is likely to be the replacement sales that apparently form the 70% of total iPhone sales in financial year of 2014. There is no cause of worry for Apple as the sales are expected to be steady throughout, considering the huge fan-base of the company.
