Why Should You Not Trust On IDC’s 2016 Tablet Prediction: Windows Couldn’t Hold 2.9% Tablet Market Share In 2012

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We could easily perceive an intense competition in Tablet segment. The competition in the segment is going to be intensified in coming days due to surging demand of Android Tablets and stunning shipments of Apple’s iPad Mini. According to IDC’s latest report, Tablet shipment will hit 122.3 million figures this year, expecting to reach 172.4 million units in 2013 and 282.7 million units by 2016. However, the firm has not provided any stats regarding the number of Android or iOS tablets going to be shipped by the end of this year.

At present, a slew of Android tablets such as Google Nexus 7, Samsung Galaxy Tab 2 and Amazon Kindle Fire HD are available at very affordable price tags. On the other side, Apple has already launched iPad Mini and refreshed fourth generation iPad, which are expected to outburst their market in this holiday season.

Besides, the firm has also predicted that Android will hold 42.7% Tablet market share in 2012, up from 39.8% in 2011. While Apple’s Tablet market share will slip to 53.8% in 2012 from 56.3% in 2011. Who gains the market share of Apple will be the question and the firm has already predicted that Windows will clinch the tablet market share from Android and iOS in forthcoming quarters. Windows forecasts to hold 10.2% tablet market share in 2016, up from 1% in 2011.

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First, IDC has raised its forecast by 15.3% for 2012 and 42.6% for 2016. Really, the change is huge and more importantly, the firm has raised the forecast by 15.3% in same calender year. What does it mean? In simple words, if the firm is unable to forecast the market share of Tablet for the same calender year, then how could we believe its prediction for 2016. However, it’s not IDC’s fault, but it has happened due to dynamic Tablet environment around the world. The scenario of tablet industry has changed incredibly over last five to six months.

Furthermore, it’s true that Apple’s Tablet market share dropped from 68.2% in Q2 2012 to 57% in Q3 this year. But it does not mean that it couldn’t gain market share in this quarter. Also, it’s estimated that Apple would ship 26 million iPad Tablets in Q4 this year. However, Apple saw drop in Tablet market share due to users’ waiting for iPad Mini. The company shipped 3 million units of iPads (since the launch of iPad Mini) within three days ending November 4. However, the company didn’t disclose the figure how many units of iPad mini were shipped during the weekend–it was cumulative sum of iPad Mini and fourth generation iPad.

This time, IDC has predicted that Windows will grab 2.9% of Tablet market share by the end of this year. But how? By the end of Q3 2012, Windows succeeded to grab just 0.4% Tablet market share (according to IDC’s report). Will Windows gain 2.5% of tablet market share by the end of this year? Of course, it’s not possible for Windows. Users are still reluctant to own Surface Tablet and Microsoft really needs to work hard for this Tablet. Surface Tablet is still nascent, and it will have to prove itself in the market.

This is not the first time when IDC has demonstrated a ridiculous prediction. In June this year, it speculated that Android would have 61% of overall Smartphone market share by the end of this year. It means that Android will have to reach the saturation level by the end of this year. But just a month before, the firm itself reported that Android had 75% market share in Q3 2012.

More importantly, IDC reported that Windows Phone/ Windows mobile will succeed to grab 5.2% market share by the end of this year. But do you really think that the OS will achieve the target? Indeed, it’s tough to predict the trend of Smartphone and Tablet market share this time. And also, you can’t underestimate the technology company like Apple just on the basis of its Q3 earnings and average revenue per user (ARPU).

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